Home Sales Up 16.4% in February

March 12, 2013 – The 4-county Metropolitan Milwaukee housing market continued plowing through the winter in February, posting a 16.4% increase in sales over February 2012. There were 960 sales in February, the most for that month since 2007 (1,033), just before the Great Recession began; and marking the 20th month in a row of increased home sales.

Click here to view the graph showing actual sales over the last 20 months. Note the higher level of sales in January and February 2013 compared to the same months in 2012, indicating a much stronger beginning to 2013.

While the continued housing recovery is certainly welcome news, and hopes are that the trajectory of sales depicted in the graph above for 2012 follows into 2013, there is concern over the very low levels of inventory in the market.

The market had 7.08 months of inventory in February (calculated by the number of active listings divided by the average monthly sales over the previous 12 months), which is well below the 11.63 months in February 2012. Only 1,952 homes were listed in February 2013, down 18.3% from a year earlier.

REALTORS® are listing homes to be sure, just not at the rate the market indicates it needs to satisfy current demand. Confusion and skepticism among potential sellers over what price their home might sell for seems to be the main culprit in their hesitation to list.

Sellers will undoubtedly not fetch prices from the peak of the market, however, prices have stabilized in most communities. And, due to the low levels of inventory the length of time a house is on the market has shrunk significantly.

The law of supply and demand would seem to dictate prices should increase soon. With a low supply of homes, stable or increasing demand, historically low interest rates, and positive external factors such as consumer confidence and employment, prices should be pushed upward as buyers outbid one another for a listing.

However, the overall economy is not blazing any trails, job creation is tepid, mortgage applications are detailed and time consuming, and multiple offers are bidding up to a property’s asking price and often including seller concessions. In short, the market is still working through a few challenges that may be holding overall growth back.

While the market is strengthening, it is still too early in the year to say with any confidence that the Milwaukee market will see universal price increases this year. It is still a buyers’ market, but just slightly.